Eddie Joseph and George Armstrong both published this effect in 1949 under the same name: Premonition. The effects are identical and the methods are also pretty much identical except some minor details. Since George Armstrong describes his inspiration and when and where he developed it, while Eddie Joseph does not, I believe George Armstrong to be the inventor of this method. George Armstrong’s inspiration was an effect from Greater Magic by Bill McCaffrey. But already Hofzinser has a similar routine Domination of Thought from his Card Conjuring.
A spectator names a card. He is asked to take a pack of cards from the table, remove them from case and count them, face up, on to the table. He counts only 51 cards. The very card he is thinking of is not in the pack. Without the slightest hesitation, the performer removes the missing card from his pocket.
sure-fire
no chance of failure
magician does not touch the cards at any time
no fake cards
no force
any card can be named
no skill
you can perform this five minutes after reading the instructions